American Idol

Logic is a difficult thing to employ when it comes to American Idol.  There are countless examples in the show's history of singers making it further than any logic would dictate (Sanjaya Malakar, anyone?) and even this season has had its share of baffling moments (Carly Smithson's brief appearance in the bottom three comes to mind).  So, take everything going forward with a grain of salt.  American Idol voters have shown to be fickle customers – the week to week vote fluctuations are often astonishing.  What I'm going to attempt to do here is predict the final finishing order of American Idol's Top 9 using (gulp) logic.  What else is there to go on, really?  My gut feelings regarding eliminations this season have been abysmally off base and I'm seriously beginning to rethink my future career as a reality television prognosticator.  Let's give this a whirl. 

Ninth Place – Syesha Mercado 

She was in the bottom three, the bottom two, then she avoided the bottom three and this week she again found herself as one of the two lowest vote-getters.  Her performance on Tuesday, I thought, was pretty good.  If, after a solid performance, Syesha found herself where she did, things do not bode well for her future in the competition.  She's going to give another pretty good performance next week, but it won't be enough to save her. 


Eighth Place – Kristy Lee Cook

With “God Bless the USA” Kristy Lee Cook played her last trump card.  She can't get any more desperate or clever with her song choice, and all of the patriotic good will she garnered can't possibly last another two weeks, can it?  Even though she avoided the bottom three this week, Cook has spent the last month on the precipice of elimination.  If she comes out next week wearing only a flesh-baring American flag and two bald eagles on her shoulders, however, all bets are off.


Seventh Place – Carly Smithson 

Three ladies in a row?  Is that possible?  I think so.  At this point, if my predictions come true, the men will only outnumber the ladies four to three.  Not enough to influence the votes that significantly.  She was a surprise entrant in the bottom three last week, and I suspect she'll find herself there once again in the next couple weeks.  I'm liking Carly more and more as the season goes along, but I don't think she possesses the fan base I expected her to at the beginning of the season.


Sixth Place – Jason Castro 

Jason goes one of two ways beginning next week.  Either he steps up, becomes motivated and gives us some uniquely great performances, or he folds.  His lack of effort recently has been noticeable and, frankly, I'm not all that sure Jason's heart is in this thing.  He's such a laid back (maybe often high) dude, that I think the overwhelming intensity of American Idol is taking its toll.  I think he's going to throw in the towel, get eliminated and feel pretty good about it.


Fifth Place – Ramiele Malubay

By this point, Ramiele will have endured countless Sanjaya comparisons.  No one seems to think she deserves to still be in this competition, yet she mysteriously has yet to sniff the bottom three.  It's the Jasmine Trias principle, apparently.  I like Ramiele – she seems like a nice, fun girl.  She has a pretty good voice, but it's clear that she's outclassed by most of the remaining singers.  This is where the talent difference just becomes too vast. 


Fourth Place – Michael Johns

This seems about right.  I'm torn about this placement, though.  For all I care, you can switch Michael and Jason on this list.  That's how close I think the two of them are at this point.  But, given the momentum Michael has coming off his Queen performance this week, and the obvious difference between how much he's invested in this thing compared to Castro, I think this is where Johns will land. 


Third Place – Brooke White 

I almost placed Brooke in second place, but then I got to thinking – when it comes down to the Davids and Brooke, which one is not like the other?  Brooke and Archuleta would logically appear to have a similar voting base.  Not exactly the same, but I can see them splitting a lot of votes.  Cook, on the other hand, is so clearly different from both of them that he could probably coast into the finals against Brooke and Archuleta. 


Second Place – David Cook

The rocker versus the pop singer.  This will be very similar to last year's final.  David Cook will probably be very happy to lose out to Archuleta and in the process gain that much more freedom when it comes to recording his debut album, just like Blake Lewis last year. 


First Place - David Archuleta

As much as I'd like to think that Archuleta could get beat by someone this season, it's just not very likely.  He's killed everyone according to Dial Idol, and his fans aren't going to tire of him any time soon.  The simple fact is this: David not only has to have some really poor performances to not win, he's going to need a string of really bad performances to get ousted.  With Idol clearly pulling for him to come out on top, that isn't going to happen. 


-Oscar Dahl, BuddyTV Senior Writer
(Image Courtesy of FOX)