2011 Emmy Predictions for Reality: Does 'The Voice' Have a Shot?
John Kubicek
John Kubicek
Senior Writer, BuddyTV
The Emmy competition for Reality Competition is fairly static. Since the category was first created in 2003, The Amazing Race and American Idol have been nominated every year, with TAR winning for the first seven times (until a surprise upset by Top Chef last year).

In fact, for the past four years, the nominees have been exactly the same: The Amazing Race, American Idol, Top Chef, Dancing with the Stars and Project Runway. But hopefully it won't be five in a row.

NBC has the big new contender on the scene with The Voice, and with a lot of buzz and excitement over the past few weeks (when voters' ballots were being filled in), it could ride that momentum to a nomination. It feels safe to assume that if it does, Project Runway would be the most likely victim.

Unfortunately, that still leaves the most deserving underdog, FOX's So You Think You Can Dance, in the cold. It certainly deserves a nomination over something like American Idol, but that's not likely to happen. If you're looking for a true longshot, RuPaul's Drag Race might be the kind of over-the-top, gay-friendly competition to replace Project Runway.

The race for Reality Host is also a hot one, though Survivor's Jeff Probst has won all three years its existed. DWTS' Tom Bergeron and Idol's Ryan Seacrest are also always in the running, so that leaves two spots left.

Padma Lakshmi and Phil Keoghan are beloved, but neither is particularly prominent on their show.  I'd love to see Cat Deeley finally enter the race, as the SYTYCD hostess is always a ray of sunshine on the series and keeps things fun and light. And if the voters really wanted to be outrageous, RuPaul Charles could get in and guarantee some exciting fashion on the red carpet.

Overall, despite a lack of Simon Cowell on Idol and the arrival of The Voice, I don't expect a whole lot of change in these categories. Voters have repeatedly proven that they like picking the same shows and hosts over and over again. Maybe with The Voice, things will get shaken up and voters won't feel the need to nominate American Idol or Dancing with the Stars just because they're the most-watched shows on TV.

See My Emmy Predictions for the Comedy Categories>>
See My Emmy Predictions for the Drama Categories>>

Here are my predictions for this year's Emmy nominees in the Reality categories.

The Amazing Race
American Idol
Dancing with the Stars
Top Chef
The Voice

Tom Bergeron, Dancing with the Stars
Cat Deeley, So You Think You Can Dance
Padma Lakshmi, Top Chef
Jeff Probst, Survivor
Ryan Seacrest, American Idol

The 63 Annual Emmy Award nominations will be announced Thursday, July 14 at 8:35am ET/5:35am PT by Fringe's Joshua Jackson and Mike and Molly's Melissa McCarthy.

(Image courtesy of NBC)