Survivor: Cambodia, one of the craziest Survivor seasons ever, is coming to an end. The two-hour finale will probably have as many surprises, if not more, than any other episode this season. Yet I don’t think naming the winner of Survivor: Cambodia will be as much of a stab in the dark as predicting whoever is going home in a given week. There is enough evidence that we can accrue throughout the season about who will be the sole survivor for this season. Of the six remaining castaways, here are our best guesses for who will be the winner of Survivor: Cambodia.

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Who is Not Going to Win?

Keith is an entertaining presence, to be sure. As a Survivor viewer, we can all be happy that Keith has made it this far in the season because his confessionals are gold. He’s also really good at competitions. There is no way Keith is going to get enough votes to win Survivor: Cambodia. He might get to the final Tribal and he may get one or two votes honoring his skill in physical challenges, but that’s all. The jury does not seem like a bitter jury and will probably award the player with the best strategic game play. This is not Keith.

You can similarly count Kimmi out of the running. Kimmi has tried more than Keith to get something going strategically, but she’s failed nearly every time. No one is going to award her a Survivor “You tried” sticker in the form of a million dollars. Keith and Kimmi are probably the two castaways most likely to get to the finals because everyone views them as “goats.” They just stand no chance of actually winning. 

Tasha’s only chance of winning is if she takes Keith and Kimmi to the finals. If you have been watching the Ponderosa segments with the jury, which can be found on the official Survivor YouTube page, you know Tasha isn’t too popular with the jury. She has her defenders — Savage mainly — but it’s hard to see the majority giving her the title of sole survivor. There’s no way that any of the women, besides Wigglesworth, would vote for, her so right off the bat Tasha has lost nearly half of the jury.

It’s Down to Three

So that just leaves Jeremy, Kelley and Spencer. Kelley has played one of the best games this season. Kelley’s ability to survive and even control some votes while being on the bottom is extraordinary. She’s also never been seriously targeted. No one is really whispering about eliminating Kelley behind her back. Plus, she had a seriously devilish gleam in her eyes when Abi was eliminated in the penultimate episode, which can only mean Kelley is plotting to stir something up. 

The problem is that many of her fellow survivors see Kelley’s under the radar and devious game as being a “goat.” Kelley has done such a good job of making herself not seem like a threat that she doesn’t have much respect of her fellow castaways. She certainly does have as much respect as Jeremy or Spencer. She can easily make a passionate final Tribal speech to sway people, but she is fighting an uphill battle to get there.

Even though he has strong allies in Spencer and Tasha, it’s insane to me that anyone would bring Jeremy to the final Tribal Council. Jeremy has that hidden Immunity Idol and he will use it, but that only works for one Tribal Council. If Jeremy makes it to the final Tribal Council, he will more than likely win. He’s smart, charismatic and has played a great game. I just don’t think anyone will take him to the final Tribal Council, which means he’ll have to win Immunity to get there. This isn’t likely because Jeremy’s success in challenges this season have been rather subpar.

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Who is Going to Win?

Whether he has played the best game or not, this is Spencer’s game to lose. I already detailed earlier in the season how Spencer was getting a pretty clear “winner’s edit”. Survivor has been sure to tell us where Spencer is in relation to the other players and what moves he has made all season. The other contestants have not been nearly as present. 

Spencer is in a good position going into the finale as well. He has two final three deals on the table. Jeremy’s hidden Immunity Idol could ruin Spencer’s plans a bit, but if Spencer can survive to the final Tribal, he stands a really good shot. Spencer’s eloquent enough to sway people with his answers. He has the resume to back up a win with challenge wins and strategic moves. He’s also paranoid enough to remove bigger competition like Jeremy as soon as he has a chance.

The Survivor: Cambodia finale airs Wednesday, December 16 at 8pm on CBS.

(Image and video courtesy of CBS)

Derek Stauffer

Contributing Writer, BuddyTV

Derek is a Philadelphia based writer and unabashed TV and comic book junkie. The time he doesn’t spend over analyzing all things nerdy he is working on his resume to be the liaison to the Justice League.