Big Brother 19 is in its last week, which means it’s time for the three-part Final HoH of the season. This format has been a staple since season 2, with the winners of parts 1 and 2 competing in part 3 to be the Final HoH. And after 17 seasons of data, it’s clear that winning the first part is not the best way to win the game.

SPOILER WARNING: This article contains Big Brother 19 spoilers.

Paul won part 1 of the Final HoH.

Let’s look at the history of people who’ve won part 1 of this competition to see Paul’s chances of winning the game.

Winning the Game

Only 5 out of the 17 HGs who won part 1 of the Final HoH went on to win the game, and the last time it happened was Rachel Reilly back in season 13. Others to do it are season 3’s Lisa Donahue, season 5’s Drew Daniel, season 10’s Dan Gheesling and season 12’s Hayden Moss. Those aren’t good odds, especially since the last five seasons have all seen the winner of part 1 lose the game.

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The odds aren’t much better when you look at it by gender. A total of nine men have won part 1 (including Paul last year), but only three of them went on to win the game.

Winning Part 3

The good news for Paul is that the HGs who win part 1 are also more likely to win part 3. Out of 17 seasons, there have been 11 times when the winner of part 1 also won part 3 and became the Final HoH. The odds are also good for the men, as six out of the nine guys to win part 1 also won part 3.

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Finishing 2nd or 3rd

The other good news for Paul is that the winner of part 1 had made it to the Final 2 on 14 different occasions. But that means that nine of those times, the part 1 winner ended up finishing in second place.

There have only been three times when the winner of part 1 was evicted in third place: season 8’s Zach Swerdzewski, season 11’s Kevin Campbell and season 17’s Vanessa Rousso.

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Boiling down the numbers, Paul’s chances of winning are definitely lessened by winning part 1 of the Final HoH. And there are other bad signs for him, historically speaking. There has never been a winner who won more than two PoV competitions (Paul has five). And the person who won the week 2 HoH, the week 2 PoV or the week 5 HoH has never gone on to win the game (Paul won all three of those competitions).

Basically, Paul winning the game, while likely, would be historic and go against all of the statistical trends of the past. Will Paul win Big Brother 19? Find out on the season finale, Wednesday at 8/7c on CBS.

(Image courtesy of CBS)