Dan did not make a mistake last night.  His deal with Ollie might just win him $500,000.  Everyone out there saying that the deal was the worst in Big Brother history are looking at it with blinders.  If looking at it in a one-week vacuum, then of course it was an awful deal for Dan.  But that was the point.  The biggest mistake Big Brother houseguests make is playing the game on a pure week-to-week basis, which often hurts their long-term game play.  Dan is thinking long-term, and I suspect he’ll be rewarded for it.  Dan is showing a Will Kirby-esque talent for manipulating the rest of the Big Brother house.  He is consciously sculpting the way others view him, and he’s done so by feigning weakness.  Last night’s deal with Ollie gave Dan the Head of Household in a way that will cause the least resistance possible.  It was quite a feat if viewed in the correct light.

For Dan…

Worst Possible Scenario:

For Dan, that would be if Memphis was evicted, and Jerry turned around and won Head of Household, then tried to eliminate Dan.  However, even if this happened, I doubt Dan would be evicted.  He still has Keesha and Renny in his corner no matter what.  The only possible way Dan goes home after Thursday’s second eviction is if Jerry, Ollie and Michelle all conspire him to oust him from the game.  The chance of this are slim, because I sincerely doubt that Memphis gets evicted.

The other possibility is Jerry winning the Power of Veto, but there’s about a 2% chance that happens.

Best Possible Scenario:

Jerry goes home.  Dan and Jerry have patched things, Jerry has been remorseful about his behavior towards Dan, and Jerry expected to be nominated by Dan.  No relationships were changed in this situation, so it would not at all be surprising if, presupposing Dan makes the final two, Jerry gave Dan his jury vote.  Dan has circuitously garnered Jerry’s respect. If Jerry goes home, that makes it four against two inside the house, with Michelle and Ollie (two players who have proved little in challenges) battling the strong four of Dan, Renny, Memphis and Keesha. 

Dan’s nomination of Memphis via Ollie does not hurt him at all.  He already has enough trust capital built up with Memphis that even this supposed betrayal isn’t enough to irreparably harm their relationship, especially if Dan manages to either save him or get him off the block. 

Dan is looking at this as a numbers game.  He has to help eliminate five people to make the final two.  He has a strong alliance with three other people – he has to get rid of two of those people at some point.  If he can get rid of one (Memphis) without all the blame falling on him, then that’s a step towards victory.  Dan was also aware that Ollie’s trust equals two potential jury votes.  Ollie and April will vote for the same person in the final vote.  The deal he made and the fact that he kept to the deal is probably enough to get those votes.  Again, really smart.

Let’s suppose Memphis wins the Power of Veto.  Ollie would get to choose who goes up in his stead.  However, it wouldn’t particularly matter.  Ollie would simply get to choose which of his tenuous alliance members gets evicted.  If he tells Dan to put Keesha on the block, Memphis and Renny will vote to evict Jerry and Dan will cast the tie-breaking vote to evict Jerry. Same thing happens if Renny goes up.  If Ollie tells Dan to put Michelle up, Memphis and Keesha can simply take their choice. 

Let’s stop saying that this was a bad deal by Dan.  It was anything but. 

-Oscar Dahl, BuddyTV Senior Writer
(Image Courtesy of BigBrotherCaps.com)

Oscar Dahl

Senior Writer, BuddyTV