Every week on The X Factor is a double elimination, which makes the cuts twice as cruel. Now two of the remaining six acts will go home and only four move on to the semifinals.

Based on the judges’ comments this week, all six deserve to be in the finale and it would be a tragedy on par with the Hindenburg if any were eliminated.  But two will go home anyway. Here’s how I break down the Top 6.

Who’s Safe?

Alex and Sierra delivered two knock-out performances that were the two top-selling downloads on iTunes this week. Their cover of “Say Something” cracked the Top 5, which was interesting because the original version by A Great Big World was also in the Top 5. Under no circumstances will they be going home.

I also think Restless Road will be safe. They delivered solid performances and have a distinct advantage because the three members are all from three different small towns, giving them triple the fan base of the other acts.

I also think Ellona Santiago delivered two great performances (ironically both were songs Glee has recently covered as well). She’s been a burst of energy and should get enough votes to stay. She also has the Filipino vote, which seems to be quite powerful on these shows (see Jessica Sanchez).

Who’s in Danger?

Jeff Gutt is likeable and solid, but neither of his performances this week blew me away and I think he might suffer from being middle-of-the-road. He’s also the only one the judges didn’t declare a must-have in the finale.

However, the two acts most in danger are the ones who’ve already been in the bottom before: Rion Paige and Carlito Olivero. Those past results prove they may not have such strong support. Rion made Demi Lovato cry, but she seemed just as lackluster as last week. And Carlito was way off on his first song and seemed just as awkward to me in the second song. I’m honestly not sure why the judges all insisted that he needs to be in the semifinals, unless the ladies just want someone cute to look at without feeling all creepy about the younger boys in Restless Road.

I think having Paulina Rubio as a mentor will also hurt as she has proven herself to be an unintelligible trainwreck and sometimes that matters. Just look at this season of The Voice, where Cee Lo Green, amid controversy in his personal life, had all of his singers eliminated before the Top 6. Meanwhile, Adam Levine, after being declared People’s Sexiest Man Alive, has three of the Top 5 singers on that show.

My Prediction

After a brief reprieve last week, I think Carlito Olivero will be the lowest vote getter and automatically go home, thus eliminating Paulina from the competition. From the start I predicted that the Boys would get cut quickly.

Then I think Rion and Jeff will be in the Final Showdown, with Rion actually getting the eliminated after another deadlock from the judges. It pains me since I initially predicted Rion to win the whole thing prior to the Top 16, but I still have Restless Road and Alex and Sierra in the mix, both of whom I picked for the Top 5.Then again, I also thought Roxxy Montana and Lillie McCloud would still be around.

Who do you think will go home on The X Factor and who will be in the semifinals? And are you excited for the return of cute skater boys Emblem3? Are we headed towards an all-Simon Cowell finale with Restless Road vs. Alex and Sierra? That would be interesting since, in nine seasons of the U.K. version of The X Factor and two seasons in the U.S., only one group has ever won (the U.K.’s Little Mix, who will perform on the results show).  And only two other British groups made it to second place.

(Image courtesy of FOX)

John Kubicek

Senior Writer, BuddyTV

John watches nearly every show on TV, but he specializes in sci-fi/fantasy like The Vampire DiariesSupernatural and True Blood. However, he can also be found writing about everything from Survivor and Glee to One Tree Hill and Smallville.