Wicked: For Good is arriving with the kind of tailwind most sequels only dream about. This review zeroes in on the film’s box office prospects and the concrete tracking on the board—because right now, the conversation is as much about records as it is about reprises. Industry tracking pegs opening weekend performance anywhere from $140 million to the mid–$170 million, with several models suggesting a clean shot at 2025’s best bow. Below, we break down the ranges, rival titles, and every hard number on the table.
What the models say (and the records at stake)
On November 20, 2025, Shawn Robbins published a Box Office Theory weekend forecast placing Wicked: For Good in a BOT Domestic Weekend Forecast Range of $155–177 million, with “Traditional Industry Tracking” at $120 million+. That forecast explicitly frames the sequel against several benchmarks: the year’s high bar set by A Minecraft Movie at $162.75 million (year-to-date standard), the November release crown held by Black Panther: Wakanda Forever at $181.3 million (with The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at $158.1 million), and the all-time musical leaders The Lion King (2019) at $191.8 million and Beauty and the Beast (2017) at $174.75 million. The same forecast notes reviews at “71 percent fresh from 150 submissions on Rotten Tomatoes,” while the “Popcornmeter audience score is a resounding 97 percent so far.”
Separately, box office columnist Chris Bumbray projects a more conservative—but still massive—opening of $140 million, while reminding readers that last year’s first film opened to $112 million and “legged out to a truly amazing $474 million-plus domestic total.” Framed this way, the sequel’s job is clear: clear the $162 million yardstick and it’s 2025’s biggest debut to date; keep the legs, and it rewrites the holiday corridor.
Friday–Sunday leaderboard (forecast specifics)
For weekend context, Box Office Theory’s desk estimates the top ten will reach $200.7 million—that’s “1 percent above the same weekend in 2024” (led then by the $112.5 million bow of Wicked and $55 million for Gladiator II), and “6 percent above the same weekend in 2019” (when Frozen II started at $130.3 million). Here’s the forecast snapshot for the majors (3-day Fri–Sun):
- Wicked: For Good (Universal) — $163,700,000; projected total through Sunday, November 23: $163,700,000; expected locations: ~4,000.
- Now You See Me: Now You Don’t (Lionsgate) — $8,900,000; change: -58%; projected total: $36,300,000; locations: ~3,403.
- Predator: Badlands (20th Century Studios) — $7,300,000; change: -43%; projected total: $77,500,000; locations: ~3,500.
- The Running Man (2025) (Paramount) — $6,400,000; change: -61%; projected total: $27,400,000; locations: ~3,534.
- Rental Family (Searchlight Pictures) — $4,200,000; debut; locations: ~1,600.
- SISU: Road to Revenge (Sony) — $3,200,000; debut; locations: ~2,000.
- Nuremberg (Sony Pictures Classics) — $1,800,000; change: -26%; projected total: $11,500,000; locations: ~2,000.
- Regretting You (Paramount) — $1,300,000; change: -65%; projected total: $47,000,000; locations: ~1,900.
- Black Phone 2 (Universal) — $1,200,000; change: -55%; projected total: $76,600,000; locations: ~1,200.
- Sarah’s Oil (Amazon MGM Studios) — $1,200,000; change: -47%; projected total: $10,700,000; locations: ~1,600.
Cast & creators (and why that matters to box office)
Wicked: For Good returns under director Jon M. Chu with marquee leads Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo. The resonance from the first film’s “historic and award-winning run” has a quantifiable impact: the sequel’s audience score early in the week (97% on the Popcornmeter) suggests robust fan goodwill carrying into the weekend.
Historically, the genre’s biggest openings also skew toward Disney releases like The Lion King ($191.8M) and Beauty and the Beast ($174.75M). The comparison points are relevant because they tell you where a “musical” ceiling has lived—and whether this Universal release can push through it.
Will the holiday runway help or hinder?
Two strategic variables will shape the final headline. First, families. One model cautions that some parents may delay until the Thanksgiving holiday, which could shave the initial splash (thus the $140 million pick) while setting up legs; the prior film’s $112 million launch to $474 million-plus domestic is Exhibit A for sustainable playability. Second, early access. With multiple flavors of pre-release engagement mid-week, walk-up volume can still surprise.
Put simply, if Wicked: For Good clears $162.75 million, it owns 2025’s opening weekend crown to date; if it rides strong word of mouth through Thanksgiving and beyond, it could also challenge the modern musical opening pantheon now dominated by those Disney benchmarks.
Verdict (for now)
This is less a question of whether Wicked: For Good opens big than how big. The current consensus boxes it into $155–177 million, with outlier caution at $140 million. Either way, Universal has a bona fide event title on its hands, and the year’s box office narrative may hinge on where it lands relative to A Minecraft Movie’s $162.75 million. We’ll update this ‘Wicked: For Good’ review as the weekend receipts come in, with special attention to legs across the Thanksgiving corridor.
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