Big Brother 15 might be full of explosive racial fighting and bullying and all sorts of other personal nonsense, but at the end of the day, it’s a game. People win competitions, people get nominated and people get evicted. Monday saw the third Power of Veto ceremony inside the house, and it most likely sealed someone’s fate.

SPOILER WARNING: This article contains Big Brother 15 spoilers.

Elissa is the MVP and she nominated Spencer (even though Amanda, McCrae, Helen and the rest of their group wanted her to put up Howard). Kaitlin won the Power of Veto and used it to save herself. Helen nominated Jeremy as the replacement nominee.

In other words, he’s getting backdoored, a time-honored tradition on Big Brother and a smart (yet annoying and cowardly) way to get rid of a big threat. The first time it happened was in the third week of Big Brother 4 to David, but the practice was perfected with Nakomis’ Six-Finger Plan in season 5. She won HoH, nominated two people in her alliance, they chose three others in their alliance to play in the PoV competition (at the time, extra players were made by choice, not by random draw) and then it was used and Jase was put up as the replacement nominee, then evicted.

In other words, after the HoH competition, Jase’s fate was sealed and there was nothing he could do. It’s a cheap trick that makes sure you can take out a competitive threat without letting them fight for a chance to stay (especially ironic this week since Helen’s speech to the nominees mentioned her desire to let two strong women fight to save themselves).

So now Jeremy is going to be evicted on Thursday, unless a miracle happens. He’s already started campaigning, and while some pretend to listen to him and consider it, they instantly tell each other “No” in private. The only way I can see him staying is if production starts trying to manipulate HGs in the diary room by convincing them that Aaryn’s racist is so horrendous that she deserves to be evicted more than Jeremy.

Most of the HGs are too smart for that and have sworn to make strategic decisions, not personal ones. This week Jeremy has been more respectful and contrite than usual, and Andy even said that if this new, less cocky Jeremy came into the house in week 1, he wouldn’t be going home so soon. I assume that’s a total lie, because he’d still be perceived as a huge game threat, maybe even moreso if he was a nice guy.

He’s definitely a goner, and just like that, the first three evicted HGs will be the three strongest guys (and, IMHO, the best male eye candy). This will be the first time this has ever happened. In fact, there has only been one instance where the first two HGs evicted were guys, and that was season 10. In season 13, the first two guys to go were also men, but one was Evel Dick Donato, who left voluntarily instead of by vote.

Since the eviction is a foregone conclusion (unless Aaryn does something so racist that everyone finally decides to send her home or she gets expelled or Howard Hulks out and gets DQed), let’s focus back on the status of the game.

Alliance Update

In order to understand the structure of the house, here are all the major alliances, deals and relationships going on right now.

The Goof Troop: Andy, Judd, McCrae, Amanda

They have a Final 4 deal and have settled on the dumbest name ever for their little group, a name that rivals the Quack Pack for sheer idiocy. But they’re all huge fans of the show and seem very tight. They also have an expanded Final 5 deal with Helen, but this week the foursome have started to trust her less because of wild deals she’s making with the other HGs.

The Knockouts: Helen, Andy, Judd, McCrae, Amanda, Elissa

The Goof Troop has Helen on-board as their fifth member, but they also include Elissa in this alliance because they need to use her for the MVP nomination every week. However, the Goof Troop is starting to become wary of Elissa because she isn’t doing exactly what they tell her to do. Sorry, Elissa fans, but Jeremy and Aaryn aren’t the only ones who are mean to her, it’s obvious that McCrae and Amanda, plus the others, have no respect for her as a player.

Fake Team Elissa Alliance: Helen, Andy, Judd, McCrae, Amanda, Jessie, Elissa, Howard, Candice, Spencer

The Knockouts want the numbers on their side and need protection everywhere, so these four extra members are just expendable. Jessie was added by Judd to secure Nick’s eviction last week, and while he has a Final 2 deal with her, no one really takes her that seriously. Nobody actually trusts Howard or Spencer and they are next on the chopping block. Candice was close to Helen and Elissa, but her connection to Howard, especially after all of the racial stuff, has made her less valuable to them and more of a wild card.

The BB Bunnies: Aaryn, GinaMarie

These two have seemingly grown closer this week, mostly because they’ve both lost their men and they see Jeremy and Kaitlin as the other two outcasts, so they teamed up to protect each other. However, they’re also being recruited for information from the other side. McManda has done the best job of pumping Aaryn for information and making a fake deal with her while Helen has been focused on fostering a bond with GinaMarie.

Jerelin: Jeremy, Kaitlin

These two are in a showmance, but since Jeremy is almost certainly going to be evicted this week, that doesn’t matter. Meanwhile, Kaitlin is being buttered up by Helen, Andy and Elissa to team up with them after Jeremy leaves, but it’s mostly a fake deal just to keep themselves safe.

That’s how everything stacks up in week 3, but paranoia could come into play down the road. For now, the Core 5 have more targets than they know what to do with. After Jeremy, Howard is their prime target, with Spencer, Aaryn and Kaitlin close behind (and maybe Elissa is she keeps daring to have a mind of her own).

If the Core 5 sticks together, they could easily make it to the end, especially since they’re getting rid of anyone who could potentially beat them in competitions. But if their paranoia reaches critical mass and they start turning on each other in a few weeks, there’s the potential for a bloodbath where floaters like Candice, Jessie or GinaMarie could make it a lot farther than they probably deserve to.

How do you feel about the way Big Brother 15 is shaping up? Will the Core 5 survive to the end or will they eventually turn on each other, leading to a super floater finale with something like Candice/Jessie sitting in the final two chairs? Will Elissa ever start playing this game on her own terms and not just as a tool for the Core 5 to use? Does Jeremy deserve to get evicted when Aaryn is sitting next to him?

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(Image courtesy of CBS)

John Kubicek

Senior Writer, BuddyTV

John watches nearly every show on TV, but he specializes in sci-fi/fantasy like The Vampire DiariesSupernatural and True Blood. However, he can also be found writing about everything from Survivor and Glee to One Tree Hill and Smallville.