Now that Venice and Telluride have wrapped, the conversation around 2026 Oscar Predictions is shifting into focus. The fall festivals have always been kingmakers, and this year is no exception. With Toronto, New York, and AFI still to come, pundits are beginning to separate hype from substance, while studios map out their awards strategies.

Best Picture: Early Leaders and Question Marks

According to Awards Daily, the most significant debut at Telluride was Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet. Reactions suggest it could be the “real deal,” with some comparing its trajectory to past Telluride favorites like Nomadland or Oppenheimer. Produced by Steven Spielberg and Sam Mendes, and directed by a potential repeat winner in Zhao, the film has quickly become the presumed frontrunner.

But the field is crowded. Sinners, Ryan Coogler’s supernatural blues-infused story, continues to generate passionate reactions and remains highly ranked on prediction apps. Its historical and musical themes give it depth, though Academy resistance to horror elements could be a hurdle. Netflix is fielding contenders like Jay Kelly, Frankenstein, and A House of Dynamite, with Jay Kelly standing as its most viable Best Picture shot. Meanwhile, other big-budget players such as One Battle After Another, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Wicked for Good, and The Housemaid are still to come, meaning the lineup is far from set.

Based on current chatter, Awards Daily’s top ten include:

  • Sinners,
  • Hamnet,
  • Sentimental Value,
  • Wicked: For Good,
  • Jay Kelly,
  • Weapons,
  • Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere,
  • One Battle After Another,
  • It Was Just an Accident,
  • and Avatar: Fire and Ash.

The key question: can Hamnet or Sinners sustain momentum for six months until Oscar night?

Best Actor: A Star-Studded Showdown

Variety’s Awards Circuit outlines a particularly stacked Best Actor race. Among the top contenders:

  • Dwayne Johnson, earning raves for his physical and emotional transformation in Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine.
  • Jesse Plemons, once again pairing with Yorgos Lanthimos in the twisted Bugonia, showcases his gift for unsettling nuance.
  • Oscar Isaac, with not one but two high-profile roles: Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and Julian Schnabel’s The Hand of Dante.
  • Wagner Moura, fresh off his Cannes win for Kleber Mendonça Filho’s political thriller The Secret Agent.
  • Michael B. Jordan, finally looking poised for his first nomination with a dual role in Coogler’s Sinners, is in for a career-defining performance.
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, returning from retirement in Anemone, co-wrote with his son Ronan Day-Lewis.
  • Russell Crowe, aiming for a comeback in James Vanderbilt’s Holocaust drama Nuremberg.
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, reuniting with Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another.
  • Jeremy Allen White, embodying Bruce Springsteen in Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere.
  • Channing Tatum, turning heads as a Toys R’ Us robber in Derek Cianfrance’s Roofman.

From veterans like Day-Lewis to breakout festival darlings like Moura, the lineup is one of the most competitive in years. Variety notes that the race remains fluid, with festivals, guild reactions, and critical awards likely to reshape the field week by week.

Best Actress and Supporting Contenders

Awards Daily also laid out an expansive set of acting predictions beyond Best Actor. For Best Actress, Jessie Buckley (Hamnet) and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) headline, alongside Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Emma Stone (Bugonia), and Julia Roberts (After the Hunt). Amanda Seyfried is also in the mix for The Testament of Ann Lee.

Related: Graham Greene, Oscar‑Nominated ‘Dances with Wolves’ Actor, Dies at 73

Supporting categories bring their own intrigue. Paul Mescal and Delroy Lindo stand out on the men’s side for Hamnet and Sinners, while Amy Madigan, Ayo Edebiri, Elle Fanning, Ariana Grande, and Jennifer Lopez form a diverse and high-profile slate of Supporting Actress contenders. From Broadway veterans to pop stars, the Academy could lean in several directions.

Streaming Giants vs. Theatrical Heavyweights

The ongoing question is how streaming platforms like Netflix will fare against traditional studios. While Netflix has Jay Kelly and other prestige titles, critics often note that the streamer gives too much leeway to auteurs, sometimes diluting awards chances. By contrast, Warner Bros., A24, and Focus Features are positioning projects with deliberate Oscar appeal, from Bugonia to The Smashing Machine. The balance between creative freedom and disciplined campaigning may once again decide which films cross the finish line.

The Road Ahead

Toronto is up next, and if Hamnet wins the Audience Award there, its frontrunner status could solidify. Yet as pundits often say, “nobody knows anything.” Surprises are inevitable, and what looks like a sure thing in September may be forgotten by February. For now, 2026 Oscar Predictions paint a picture of a wide-open race, defined by daring performances, festival highs and lows, and studios betting big on both spectacle and intimacy.

– BuddyTV Awards Desk

Buddy TV

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