Surprise Hits and Misses: Nashville
Surprise Hits and Misses: Nashville
John Kubicek
John Kubicek
Senior Writer, BuddyTV
In BuddyTV's 2007 Fall TV Guide, we scoured the new shows for this year's biggest potential hits and misses. We found the ones that you should be following and which ones will probably get canceled early. The hits include Journeyman, Kid Nation and Dirty Sexy Money while the misses are Samantha Who?, Viva Laughlin, and Nashville.

There is no chance that FOX's Nashville will survive. None, zero, nil, nada. If it lasts more than six episodes, I will be shocked. Heck, if it survives into week two, my jaw may drop. There are only three certainties in life: death, taxes, and the fact that Nashville will be the first casualty of the 2007-'08 TV season.

The self-named “docu-soap” from the same team that gave us Laguna Beach follows the lives of several pretty, young people hoping to make it big in Music City, U.S.A. There are countless reasons why this show is doomed for failure, but I shall only provide the top three, and leave you to judge if there's any room for doubt.

1. Time Slot Demographics
Friday is the death night for television. Everyone's out and partying, so even if you put new episodes of Grey's Anatomy on, they'd only get a fraction of the ratings the show normally does on Thursdays. Added to this is the fact that the target demographic for Nashville is likely the same young people who currently watch Laguna Beach or The Hills or Newport Harbor (as if there's a difference). Those are the people who are going out drinking, not staying inside to watch the latest reality TV show. The Friday night winners are the shows your grandparents watch.

2. Premiere Date
Even if it lasts longer than it should, the odds are in its favor to be the first show canceled simply because it's the first show to premiere. Debuting on Friday, September 14, Nashville is the first new show on one of the five major networks to premiere. That does not bode well, as it gets a jumpstart to fail. Nashville premieres more than a month before some of the other new shows this fall, giving it plenty of time to get canceled before all the others have even premiered.

3. It's on FOX
In August, we all learned how FOX treats its reality shows. The day after Anchorwoman premiered, it was canceled. The network really laid down its ground rules: if you don't have great ratings right away, you're gone. At best, Nashville has a niche appeal that will be able to do OK in the ratings (beating the CW's WWE Friday Night Smackdown would be a coup). Unfortunately, FOX is all to willing tol scrap whatever it had planned and replace it with reruns of House or Bones.  Also, have you seen a single advertisement for this show?  Because I haven't, and it's premiering this week.  As if it didn't have enough of an uphill battle, FOX doesn't even seem to want it to succeed.

Basically, Nashville has no shot at success. It's not a question of if the show gets canceled, it's just a question of when. Common sense tells me it gets less than four episodes, meaning Nashville will never see October.

<<Previous   Next>>

Read about why we think Samantha Who? and  Viva Laughlin will also miss the mark this year and why Journeyman, Kid Nation and Dirty Sexy Money will be this year’s surprise hits. Comment and tell us what you think.

-John Kubicek, BuddyTV
(Image courtesy of FOX)