2012 Emmy Comedy Predictions: Who Will Win?
2012 Emmy Comedy Predictions: Who Will Win?
John Kubicek
John Kubicek
Senior Writer, BuddyTV
Now that everyone has had a day to study the oddly diverse 2012 Emmy Award nominations, it's time to look to Sunday, September 23. Who will win?

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On the Comedy side, it's a bit tricky since every major category has at least two previous winners nominated. There are clearly frontrunners (Modern Family has won the top award for the past two seasons), but will the old favorites continue to win or will some of the fresh blood take over?

Here are my initial predictions for who will win the Emmys and who their biggest competition will be.

The Big Bang Theory
Curb Your Enthusiasm
Modern Family
30 Rock

Will Win: Modern Family. It's the two-time defending champion and a show that is both critically and commercially popular. Girls and Veep are too new and edgy while 30 Rock and Curb Your Enthusiasm are too old and past their prime.

Biggest Threat: The Big Bang Theory. This show has built up steam over its five seasons and has become a huge hit. Also this past year it started syndication on TBS where it scores huge ratings, so its reach is even wider. If there's a backlash against the new, edgy shows, voters might run into the arms of this comfortable multi-camera sitcom (see Melissa McCarthy's win last year).

Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock
Don Cheadle, House of Lies
Louis C.K., Louie
Jon Cryer, Two and a Half Men
Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory

Will Win: Louis C.K. This is a bit of a gamble since Parsons won the past two years (and Baldwin won the two years before that), but C.K. is having a huge year with seven nominations. This year feels a bit like 2007, when another stand-up comedian, Ricky Gervais, won this category for a hip cable show (Extras).

Biggest Threat: Don Cheadle. Sure, Baldwin, Parsons and Cryer have all won Emmys in the past, but Cheadle is a freaking beloved movie star. That certainly gives him a big leg up.

Zooey Deschanel, New Girl
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey, 30 Rock
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Melissa McCarthy, Mike and Molly
Amy Poehler, Parks and Recreation

Will Win: Amy Poehler. The fact that her show is NOT nominated for Outstanding Comedy Series is a tragedy and I think voters will atone for that mistake by giving her a long overdue award. This category is also judged based on single episodes, and assuming she submits the finale where Leslie wins the election and delivers her big speech at the end, it will be hard for viewers not to vote for her.

Biggest Threat: Julia-Louis Dreyfus. She won the Emmy in this category for the first season of The New Adventures of Old Christine, and Veep is a lot more acclaimed that that show was. This is her 13th Emmy nomination, so never underestimate her.

Ed O'Neill, Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Modern Family
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family
Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Max Greenfield, New Girl
Bill Hader, Saturday Night Live

Will Win: Max Greenfield. Call me crazy, but I think the Modern Family guys will cancel each other out (which is what I suspect happened in the Writing category where no Modern Family scripts were nominated even though they submitted more than 10). Greenfield was such a breakout star of his show and his performance is very flashy.

Biggest Threat: Jesse Tyler Ferguson. It feels like the Emmys are doling out awards to everyone from Modern Family, with Burrell last year and Stonestreet before that. So this might be Ferguson's year to shine.

Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Kathryn Joosten, Desperate Housewives
Julie Bowen, Modern Family
Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Merritt Wever, Nurse Jackie
Kristen Wiig, Saturday Night Live

Will Win: Kathryn Joosten. She's won two Emmys for playing this character in the Guest Actress category, so she's already a heavyweight. But when you add the fact that she tragically passed away recently (and her character died of cancer as well in the series finale), you have a tidal wave of emotion and sympathy that can't be stopped.

Biggest Threat: Kristen Wiig. Speaking of emotion, this was her final season on SNL, which could lead to her getting a nice parting gift of an Emmy.

Who do you think will win the Emmys in the Comedy categories?

(Image courtesy of ABC)