It’s the quarterfinals of Dancing with the Stars, which means the finale is in two weeks. There are still six couples remaining, but after tonight, it’s down to the Final 5. This week the couples will take on styles and songs chosen by America, as well as the return of trio dances with an extra pro or troupe member.

The leaderboard continues to be incredibly fractured, with a massive gap between the four best scores and the two lowest ones. So unless something strange happens, we once again have a week where it’s down to two obvious targets for elimination.

THE LEADERBOARD

43: Janel Parrish
41: Alfonso Ribeiro
40: Bethany Mota
38: Sadie Robertson
32: Lea Thompson
29: Tommy Chong

Updated: Dancing with the Stars Live Blog: America’s Choice and the Trio Challenge. Find Out Who Makes It In the Final 5>>>

SAFE

Janel is on top and earned a perfect score, which should keep her safe. Alfonso is in second and received the most votes from the instant Twitter vote during the dance-offs, which suggests that he’s wildly popular. Bethany had a strong performance and Derek Hough as a partner while Sadie came back with a brilliant Adam and Eve dance, butt-touching not withstanding. Quite frankly, I find it hard to imagine a scenario where these stars aren’t in the finale.

Fun Fact: If Bethany is safe, this will mark the 12th consecutive time Derek Hough has reached the Top 5. The only other pro to do it more than thrice is Maksim Chmerkovskiy, whose best run was five seasons in a row in the Top 5.

VERY UNLIKELY SHOCKER

I believe Janel and Val will be safe, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t a little worried. Sure, they had the best score and won immunity, but that also meant they didn’t get to dance a second time in the dance-off, limiting their screentime. And for the past two seasons, Val has been eliminated in sixth place with very talented stars, Elizabeth Berkley and Danica McKellar. I hope the streak ends, but this could be an evil night for Val if he finishes 6-6-6 for three seasons in a row.

IN JEOPARDY

The leaderboard makes it obvious that Lea and Tommy are the two stars in serious trouble. Without Michael around, Tommy is easily the worst dancer, but he’s very likeable and won his dance-off. Lea performed early last week, had a subpar performance and then lost a dance-off. All of those factors could stack up against her. Also problematic is her partner, first-time pro Artem Chigvintsev.

In the last 10 seasons, there have been 17 new professional partners to make their debuts on DWTS. Of those, only two made it into the Top 5 in their first seasons, Tristan MacManus (with Nancy Grace) and Emma Slater (with Bill Engvall). So historically speaking, sixth place could be it for Lea Thompson.

MY PREDICTION

I predict Lea Thompson and Artem Chigvintsev will be eliminated. It’s about time we had a truly shocking result, and while Lea’s elimination wouldn’t be that surprising, it would be a shame over Tommy Chong. But I sense a lot of goodwill towards Tommy and none for Lea, and that combined with the stats against first-time pros makes me think Lea will get the boot, despite being my pre-season pick to win.

Who do you think will make the semifinals of Dancing with the Stars season 19? Find out Monday at 8pm on ABC.

(Image courtesy of ABC)

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John Kubicek

Senior Writer, BuddyTV

John watches nearly every show on TV, but he specializes in sci-fi/fantasy like The Vampire DiariesSupernatural and True Blood. However, he can also be found writing about everything from Survivor and Glee to One Tree Hill and Smallville.