Last night the American Idol Top 6 tackled Shania Twain's songs and turned in strong performances. All of them, yes. Well, strong can take on many meanings here, but you know what I mean. In theory, having a tight six-way contest should make it harder to predict who's going home--and we all know anything can happen on Idol--but in this case, we all seem to agree on the same thing.

As always, I've taken all the numbers from our polls last night to your Fantasy TV activity, and did some magic (read: sorted them out) to see what you guys think. After that, I came up to Abbey and chatted about our bottom three... although no such chat happened, for reasons I'll explain later. All these figures point towards one thing: even as the contest got tighter, tonight's result shouldn't shock anyone... or is it?

Your FantasyTV Picks for Elimination:

Aaron Kelly - 44%
Michael Lynche - 28%
Siobhan Magnus - 15%

Poll results from last night's live thoughts:

Best performance of the night:

Lee Dewyze's "You're Still The One": 42%
Casey James' "Don't!": 34%
Aaron Kelly's "You've Got A Way": 12%

Worst performance of the night:

Siobhan Magnus' "Any Man of Mine": 33%
Aaron Kelly's "You've Got A Way": 33%
Crystal Bowersox's "No One Needs To Know": 22%

Who's going home tonight?

Aaron Kelly: 50%
Michael Lynche: 31%
Siobhan Magnus: 15%

Experts' pick for elimination:

Abbey and I did not discuss this much, because we both have the same bottom three:

Aaron Kelly
Michael Lynche
Siobhan Magnus

Abbey thinks Casey could make an appearance in the bottom three. I think Casey's quite safe tonight. We both agree on one thing, though: Aaron Kelly will be going home. But if there's a surprise elimination, I won't be surprised.

Here's an interesting history lesson you might've seen before: the fifth person to perform during Top 6 week ends up in the bottom three for six out of eight seasons. In four of those seasons, the fifth performer goes home--Carly Smithson and Constantine Maroulis suffered such fates. Will Aaron fall prey to that trend?

Me, I think there's a 20% chance of a surprise elimination. I don't know about you guys. We may all agree, but this is American Idol. It's done surprises before.

(Image courtesy of Fox)