The 'American Idol' Top 4: Who's Going Home?
The 'American Idol' Top 4: Who's Going Home?
Last week I pointed out that predicting who will be going home on American Idol gets harder as the number of contestants get smaller. This week it's harder. What else can you do with four contestants? It seems easy to pick who's going home, but it actually isn't.

This week proved to be extra challenging. We've got four contestants who have, arguably, done well throughout the season. We don't have one terribly bad performance that would've easily singled a contestant out for elimination. We do have duets, which will mix things up just a little bit.

And I have numbers to crunch. Just when I thought I could escape math by working as a writer... well, I kid. Anyway, here's who you think will be eliminated based on Fantasy TV and the polls. Also, Abbey and I threw in our predictions on who's going home as well. Who'll see their tape continue rolling, and who'll get cut?

Your FantasyTV Picks for Elimination:

Casey James - 49%
Michael Lynche - 46%
Lee Dewyze - 3%
Crystal Bowersox - 1%

Poll results from last night's live thoughts:

Best performance of the night:

Crystal Bowersox and Lee Dewyze's "Falling Slowly": 66%
Crystal Bowersox's "I'm Alright": 23%
Casey James and Michael Lynche's "Have You Ever Really Loved A Woman": 5%

Worst performance of the night:

Michael Lynche's "Will You Be There": 49%
Lee Dewyze's "Kiss From A Rose": 22%
Casey James' "Mrs. Robinson": 18%

Who's going home tonight?

Michael Lynche: 79%
Casey James: 17%
Crystal Bowersox: 4%

Experts' picks for elimination:

With four contestants left, we're picking a bottom two instead of a bottom three, and Abbey and I have the same choices:

Casey James
Michael Lynche

Abbey thinks Michael Lynche is going home, because he's been on the bottom three more times than Casey.

On the other hand, I think Casey James is going home, because he's losing steam, and Big Mike has been saved from elimination so many times. Also, I'm playing with last year's results a bit here--remember when we all wished Danny Gokey to go home and saw Allison Iraheta go home instead? That might just happen again tonight.

Bottom line is, we both think it could be anybody's game, so you can expect a surprise tonight. Who knows? Maybe our frontrunners will end up crashing tonight. I don't wanna invoke history again...

(Image courtesy of Fox)