This season of American Idol
is harder to predict than ever.
Typically guys dominate, yet the last three singers sent home were men
and now women outnumber men in the Top 6 for the first time since season
When my pick to win the entire season, Colton Dixon, was eliminated last week, I was left more confused than the time I watched the movie Boys Don't Cry
and found myself attracted to Hilary Swank. So this week, I won't declare anyone "definitely safe" because, quite frankly, anyone can go home.
So this week I've decided to become Peter Brand, Jonah Hill's character in the movie Moneyball
. I'm simply going to look at statistical data and try to determine the elimination that way. It's all about the numbers and mathematics.Joshua Ledet
: The man got two standing ovations, which made it quite clear he's the one the judges love the most. However, statistics tell me that 70 percent of the contestants eliminated in fifth place are male, so I fully expect Joshua to go home next week, making him safe for now.Phillip Phillips
: He got the harshest criticism from the judges this week (if you consider "good, not great" harsh), and it seemed to be in the same arena as Colton's critique from last week. However, since a white guy has been in the finale for the past seven seasons, he already has an express pass to the finale (he's like a cross between Taylor Hicks and Lee Dewyze).Hollie Cavanagh
: Sure, she's been in the bottom for three out of the last four weeks, but she also had the Pimp Spot, performing last on this week's show, which gives her a huge boost. In the history of the American Idol
Top 13 (or Top 12), there have only been two instances prior to the final four where the singer in the Pimp Spot was eliminated. In season 9 it happened to Siobhan Magnus at the Top 6, and in season 8 it happened to Anoop Desai in the Top 7 (though that was a double elimination). Every other singer in every single season of American Idol
who has performed last has been safe. Those are damn good odds.Jessica Sanchez
: For the past two seasons, the singer who received the Judges Save remained safe for four more weeks before going home. However, the Save was used much earlier (Top 11 and Top 9). The first time the Save was used, with Matt Giraud in season 8, he was safe the following week, but then went home the week after that. And that time, the Save was used in the Top 7, just like this year. So Jessica could easily follow suit.Elise Testone
: As Jimmy Iovine famously said, Elise has a vacation home in the Bottom 3. She's been there for the past three weeks in a row, so there's no reason to think this time will be any different. In the history of Idol
, seven people have found themselves in the Bottom 3 for three consecutive weeks. However, only two of those singers actually went home in the fourth week (Anoop Desai and Anthony Federov). Meanwhile, Tim Urban, Syesha Mercado, Phil Stacey, Scott Savol and Nikki McKibbin all survived after being in the bottom for three straight weeks, which is good news for Elise.Skylar Laine
: I originally predicted Skylar to finish second (to Colton), but since I'm basing this week entirely on statistical data, I think my favorite remaining contestant will be eliminated this week. All stats point to it. She performed second, the worst spot ever. Five of the seven singers to perform second since the Top 13 have been in the bottom this season, and two have been eliminated.
Even worse, Skylar was in the bottom the last time she performed second back in the Top 8. This week has a lot of similarities, because once again, Hollie is threatening to steal away part of the country vote by singing "The Climb" by Miley Cyrus. The Top 8 marked the only other time Hollie dabbled in country when she sang Carrie Underwood's "Jesus Take the Wheel." The point is that when Hollie sings country and Skylar performs second, it spells disaster for Miss Laine.
So there you have it. Based purely on statistical data, Skylar Laine will be going home. I don't like it, but you can't argue with math. Or maybe you can. My colleague, Carla Patton, thinks Elise Testone will go home. I hope she's right, but following Colton Dixon's elimination, I've lost all hope.(Image courtesy of FOX)