'American Idol' Top 13 Predictions: Who Is Going Home?
'American Idol' Top 13 Predictions: Who Is Going Home?
John Kubicek
John Kubicek
Senior Writer, BuddyTV
The game is afoot on American Idol and it is time to send home the first singer from the Top 13. Well, sort of.

In true Idol fashion, the producers keep changing the rules and making up new ones whenever they want, and now they've put the guys against the girls. The bottom vote-getter of each gender will be announced and the judges will decide who goes. Given how utterly useless Steve Tyler is as a judge and how wishy-washy Jennifer Lopez is, I don't think giving them any power is a good idea at this point.

Read Our Recap of the Top 13>>

Still, it's time to make picks, and after I correctly got 12 of the Top 13 last week (I mistakenly thought the judges would pick Reed Grimm over Jeremy Rosado), I'm confident I can make another solid prediction this week.

The Rules

Before I get to predicting who will go home on American Idol, I have studied the stats and history of the entire series (sort of like those dudes in Moneyball) and I have a few simple rules for this show. First, in a two-hour performance episode with a double-digit number of contestants, the last three people to sing are ALWAYS safe. I know everyone thinks Jeremy Rosado is doomed, but his position might just save him. Second, it's better to be awful than forgettable. With that in mind, let's look at the Top 13.

Who's Safe?

Guys: Phillip Phillips and Jeremy Rosado get in via my Final 3 rule. Colton Dixon and Joshua Ledet were both great and should also be safe. And Heejun Han's personality should keep him safe for a while.

Girls: Jessica Sanchez gets in via my Final 3 rule. Hollie Cavanagh and Skylar Leine were also amazing.

Who's in Trouble?

Guys: It's down to Jermaine Jones and DeAndre Brackensick. Even though DeAndre was a Wild Card pick, I feel like he's more engaging as a personality. Last week, Jermaine only made it because he went last and he had the big twist of redemption to help him (and his wonderful mama). This week, however, he was completely forgettable and dull, so I think he'll be the bottom guy.

Girls: I feel like Elise Testone and Erika Van Pelt are fighting for the same votes. They both fit into that older, professional, raspy vocalist. But much like The Highlander, there can be only one! I Though Erika was better this week, I also think she was more boring, and at least Elise has that anti-establishment vibe going. I know Shannon Magrane was the worst, but this is where my second rule comes in. She was so bad (and she was called out by the judges at the end) that I think she'll get a lot of sympathy votes.

Since the judges have made it quite clear they love the girls this season, and since the past five winners have been guys, I feel like the judges are desperate for a woman to win, so no matter what, they'll eliminate the guy tonight.

John's Bottom 2 Predictions: Jermaine and Erika

Carla's Bottom 2 Predictions: Jeremy and Shannon

John's Elimination Prediction: Jermaine

Carla's Elimination Prediction: Shannon

Who do you think will be the first to go home on American Idol season 11?

(Image courtesy of FOX)