American Idol isn't very easy to predict.  All we have to do is take a glance at the results of last season, when both Jordin Sparks and Blake Lewis came out of nowhere to finish in first and second place, respectively. Jordin was always a mild favorite, but she really turned it on in the second half of the season and improved considerably as the season moved along.  Blake Lewis was almost an afterthought entering the Top 24 – no one expected him to emerge like he did.  This season on American Idol, some prohibitive favorites have been identified early in the season.  I was thinking about coming up with my own odds to win for each remaining American Idol contestant, but then I realized that I'm no a Vegas handicapper – might as well leave these things up to the experts.  So, I took the current Vegas odds for each of the Top 11 (courtesy of Sportsbook.com) and looked to see where Vegas's head is at regarding this season of Idol. 


All in all, most of these odds seem pretty right on (Vegas is smart).  But, there were a few I had some issues with. 

Kristy Lee Cook – 50/1

I agree that Kristy should be the lowest ranked, but the odds should be more like 1,000/1 than 50/1.  She has zero chance of winning this competition. 

Chikezie Eze – 35/1

Apparently Tuesday's awesome performance wasn't very convincing.  Maybe this week was a fluke for Chikezie, but I'd like to believe that it was indicative of what we'll see from Eze moving forward. 

Amanda Overmyer – 25/1

I'd increase these odds to about 50/1.  She's made excellent song choices the last two weeks.  The problem with Amanda is that when she's bad, she's awful.

Ramiele Malubay – 20/1

Seems about right.

Syesha Mercado – 15/1

Seems about right. 

Jason Castro – 15/1

There's still a chance that Jason can pull a Blake Lewis.  But, I fear that his act may be too one-dimensional and America will eventually grow tired of it.

Michael Johns – 15/1

This is where the smart money is.  At 15/1, Johns is a huge bargain.  He's chosen very safe songs up until now and I firmly believe that he's biding his time.  He'll start wowing us soon. 

Carly Smithson – 4/1

One of the early favorites, Carly has turned it on lately and is probably a shoe-in for the Top 6.  But, there's something a little off about her – I don't think she has the universal type of appeal you need to win the whole thing. 

David Cook – 4/1

I see Cook pulling a Daughtry.  He'll cruise until the Top 4 or 5 and then be eliminated in a surprising fashion.
       
Brooke White - 2/1
       
This makes me really happy.  Brooke has been my favorite contestant this season and has shown the ability to take any song from any genre and make it her own.  Right now, she's the one I'm rooting for to win. 

David Archuleta – 5/4

This makes me really sad.  If based on performance alone, Archuleta would be at about 25/1.  But, since it's a popularity contest, Archuleta is still the huge favorite to win it all.  Boo.


-Oscar Dahl, BuddyTV Senior Writer
(Image Courtesy of FOX)