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As we get down to the final twelve dancers on So You Think You Can Dance, we're starting to get a pretty good handle on each contestant's abilities. We've all seen a number of varied routines from each of them and, truth be told, the dancers who remain on So You Think You Can Dance are all very good. However, a few favorites have emerged on the FOX reality show. But, as I've discovered, the dancers that I consider favorites differ from the consensus. I recently came across a sports gambling website that had Vegas odds posted on who would be crowned champion of So You Think You Can Dance. Needless to say, I vehemently disagreed with that website's (I won't tell you which one) odds-making.
So, I decided to make my own odds. These are not predictions, mind you, but are what I consider to be the chances of each dancer becoming the winner of So You Think You Can Dance.
(All following analysis of odds will be written in the much-too-rare, but quite effective, second-person. Why? Because the audience demands it, whether they know it or not.)
Dmitry Chaplin - 100 to 1
Oh, to be Russian and the apple of so many pre-pubescent girl's eyes. Sorry to say, your time will soon be up. You have already gone through two partners and it was an answered prayer that you didn't have to solo dance last week. Everyone keeps touting your raw ability, but you have yet to turn in a genuinely good performance. Winning it all would be an upset of Herculean proportions.
Ryan Rankine - 50 to 1
Your routines are solid, everyone knows that. You hit all your moves, you have a good repoire with your partner, and you do it all with a smile on your face. However, you dance so harmlessly. You blend in. To win So You Think You Can Dance, you need to have a killer instinct and, unfortunately, that is not something that can be learned at all, let alone in a week.
Ashlee Nino - 25 to 1
Ashlee, you have the ability it seems, but you are sloppy. You are not dynamic and have trouble adapting to dances that are outside your wheelhouse. The most disappointing thing about your performance thus far has be the hip/hop routine. For your supposed specialty, it was not as spectacular as we all expected it to be. You have time to redeem yourself, but I'm unsure if you have it in you.
Martha Nichols and Travis Wall - 20 to 1
You have been partners since the beginning and have been consistently good. Then why should your odds be so low? I think age is a factor for you two; you are both 18 and your youth does show itself at times. This is nothing to be ashamed of because you have both wildly succeeded beyond what could ever be expected. Unfortunately, the dancers I have ranked in front of you are both more skilled and more poised. So You Think You Can Dance is a show that rewards amazing performances, which is something I don't believe either of you are capable of at this time. Perhaps in a few years.
Ivan Koumaev - 18 to 1
Again, youth is a factor. Ivan, you have given the different dances your all, and for that you should be commended. However, you have a specialty, hip/hop, that is far and away your best genre of dance. And you are spectacular at it. However, you need variety to get far in So You Think You Can Dance, and variety of abilities isn't something that you possess. I fear that you will be solo dancing until you are eliminated.
These last six dancers are the ones who I feel will be competing for the title when it comes down to it. They are all capable of taking it all.
Heidi Groskreutz - 10 to 1
You have shown, much to everyone's surprise, an adaptability that is incredible. Your hip/hop routine came out of nowhere and was incredible for a white girl with no hip/hop background. You come out firing every time and your enthusiasm is electric. This may lead to your downfall, though. You seem to lack the ability for subtlety and this will come back to bite you next time you receive a ballroom routine.
Benji Schwimmer - 9 to 1
A part of the judge's favorite couple, with Donyelle, you have led a charmed So You Think You Can Dance life so far. Just like Musa, though, it is clear that Donyelle is the real star of your group. You are very adaptable and show great technical ability and a willingness to succeed in a variety of dance genres. However, your partnership is a classic example of the whole being greater than the sum of its parts. What will happen when you eventually have to perform a solo dance? I fear you will be exposed as less than the audiences have come to expect.
Musa Cooper - 7 to 1
Musa, your effort has been second to none. You are not technically proficient in dances outside of your specialties, but you have survived. The caveat here is that it has been exceedingly clear that your partner, Natalie, has lifted up all of your performances. How can you have a chance, in the judge's eyes, when you have so obviously been the weaker member in your own couple?
Natalie Fotopoulos - 11 to 2
You are my favorite dancer on So You Think You Can Dance. Is this strictly because of your dancing, or does the fact that you are head and shoulders above the rest of the ladies in that important category of "sexiness�? have something to do with it? I don't know. Regardless, your ability to bring your partner, Musa, up to your level has been nothing less than inspiring. You are my dark horse to win it all.
Allison Holker - 4 to 1
Had you asked me a couple weeks ago, you would not have even been on my radar, but now you are one of the favorites. Your solo performance last week was the most enjoyable routine of the show, an awesome display of athleticism and skill. You keep improving, and that is something the judges will always take note of. The most telling sign of your dancing prowess is this: I find myself eagerly awaiting every one of your performances.
Donyelle Jones - 3 to 2
You have become the star of the show, an inspirational story that has captured the hearts of America and the judges (especially Nigel Lythgoe) alike. You are the oldest of all the contestants on So You Think You Can Dance, at 26, and it shows in your poise and ability. Week after week, you seamlessly integrate new routines into your repertoire, looking like a seasoned pro in all of them. Frankly, it would be a mild upset if you weren't crowned champion of So You Think You Can Dance.
So, there you have it. Unless the powers that be in Nevada read this article and recognize my unlimited upside potential as a Vegas bookmaker, I'll be back later this week with recaps for both the couple's performances and the following night's results show.
-Oscar Dahl
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